Friday, 30 September 2011

7 to 8am (Pacific) Reversal

Saw this pattern yesterday after my last post:
For Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures at 7 to 8am Pacific Time, or EST 10 to 11am, there is a reversal. I went and crunched some numbers with excel and found that there is a 87% chance of getting a reversal during that time period (this would be within 4 months worth of data; might have to increase that look-back period to get more accurate results). So, in a 1 hour timeframe I would observe if the 7am bar is up or down at the close, and bet against that 7am price direction. Again, I would use a very small take-profit limit (i.e. 5 points + spread).
I also thought that this could be just a coincidence. So, I looked at the 5-6, 6-7, and 8-9 reversal possibility (4 month period). I got a 86% chance for 5-6, 86% chance for 6-7, and 75% chance for 8-9. It would seem I picked the most likely reversal period, but it is not far off from the rest. I'm curious if there is some kind of way to take advantage of the high reversal rate of all three hourly price actions...?
I looked up this phenomena, and found that there is a general rule saying that 10:30am (EST) is a likely time for a reversal because it is the likely time for the `big money` come in.

Here's a daily chart showing all the hourly reversals that did not work (Purple is 6-7, Orange is 7-8, Red is 5-6):